Winning Post-1500m: Walked a Good 4. Coverage is solid, no lanes of advantage.
1500m-800m (back straight): The track here is in sensational order. The last fortnight has really helped the growth and there's next to no marking evident. Plenty of grass underneath them and it walked a '4'. It will hold up well with any rain.
1300m-800m (chute): A little bit of wear in lanes 1 and 2 but without any rain it won't have much effect. If the rain does come in abundance as forecast, then perhaps the inside couple of lanes may race a little slower that out further. Overall, the coverage is very good.
800m-400m: There's some wear closer to the fence which might have an impact with any decent rain. Without the showers arriving I don't think the amount of wear will do enough to negate the advantage horses sitting on speed will have given the rail is in the 9m position. It's a little bit of a 'wait and see' with the weather in this section.
400m-Winning Post: Like the previous section there is more wear in lanes 1 and 2 but I think it will take rain for it to become detrimental. Assuming the rain misses, I don't think the inside will be an area they'd avoid despite lanes 3/4/5 walking better. There's noticeably more wear from the 75m mark to the post, but it spreads evenly across the inside three lanes.
Verdict: They’ve downgraded the forecast and now predicting between 1-5mm which won’t have much impact at all. Assuming there's no rain, I'd be happy to back horses settling close to the speed and not swinging wide. That's despite there being more wear in lanes 1 and 2 in most sections. If the amount of rain exceeds the forecast it might slow up those inside lanes with more fill and that will even the track up more. The cleanest lanes from the 800m mark are lanes 3-5 but you have to overlay the disadvantage of covering ground with the rail out 9m. Since February 2019 there's been 13 meetings with the rail in the 7m-9m positions. In my opinion, racing handy and close to the fence has been an advantage on nine of those occasions. Last week the rail was 6m and there was an advantage to the on-pacers, barring a good shower I'd be running with that theory.
Royal Blue, White Chevrons, Yellow Sleeves And Seams On Cap
Owners
D G Reynolds, J Carvill, J Stirk, Lower North Racing (Mgr: J R Nicholls), N A Taylor, Ms N Rantanen Reynolds, T M Pollock, T Kloeden, W A Turnbull, Ms C L Smith, M Carnell & Mrs C Bunker
L M Macdonald, R B Satchell, T E Satchell, R Bach, M Potter, S B Potter, A E Potter, D M Sharp, S T Hele, K Falconer, D I Bingley, Mrs R J Sands, Mrs N A Sands R S Potter, R M Potter & G Heidt
